Ross Garnaut

Climate Change

In November 2010 the Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency commissioned Professor Garnaut to update significant elements of his 2008 Garnaut Climate Change Review. The review update will update elements of the Garnaut Climate Change Review where significant changes have occurred, or the sum of expert knowledge has increased, since the original analysis for the 2008 Review was undertaken; and where such changes or improvements in expert knowledge could have significant implications for the key findings and recommendations of the 2008 Review.

The Review Update should consider:

international developments on climate change mitigation efforts;
developments in climate change science, and understanding of climate change impacts;
previous proposals to develop a carbon price in Australia, and the ensuing public debate;
domestic and international emissions trends;
changes in low emissions technology costs and availability;
the potential for abatement within the land sector; and
developments in the Australian electricity market.

Throughout the Review Update, consultation with key stakeholders will be required to understand views and inform analysis.

A series of publicly released papers is to be prepared between November 2010 and March 2011. A final report is to be presented to the Government by 31 May 2011. The Report will embody the independent judgments of its author.

Update Papers:

Update Paper 1: Weighing the costs and benefits of climate change action, BMW Edge, Melbourne, 3 February 2011

- Transcript of delivery of Update Paper 1 -

- Transcript of media briefing: Release of Update Paper 1, Canberra, 3 February 2011 -

Update Paper 2: Progress towards effective global action on climate change, Lowy Institute for International Policy Sydney, 7 February 2011

- Transcript of delivery of Update Paper 2 -

Update Paper 3: Global emissions trends, Australian Agricultural & Resource Economic Society Annual Conference, Melbourne, 11 February 2011

- Transcript of delivery of Update Paper 3 -

Update Paper 4: Transforming rural land use, Brisbane, 1 March 2011

Update Paper 5: The science of climate change, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 10 March 2011

- Transcript of delivery of Update Paper 5 -

Update Paper 6: Carbon pricing and reducing Australia's emissions, National Press Club, Canbera, 17 March 2011

Update Paper 7: Low emissions technology and the innovation challenge, Sydney, 23 March 2011

Update Paper 8: Transforming the electricity sector, Melbourne, 29 March 2011

- Transcript of delivery of Update Paper 8 -

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The Garnaut Climate Change Review

The Garnaut Climate Change Review was a study by Professor Ross Garnaut, commissioned by the Opposition Leader at the time, Kevin Rudd, and by the Australian State and Territory Governments on 30 April 2007. After his election on 24 November 2007, Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd has confirmed the participation of the Commonwealth Government in the Review.

The Review examined the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, and recommended medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity. A number of forums were held around Australia to engage the public on various issues relating to the Review. The Secretariat to support the Review was based in the Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet. The interim report of the Garnaut Review was released on 21 February 2008 and the draft report of the Garnaut Review was released on 04 July 2008. The final report of the Garnaut Climate Change Review was delivered on 30 September 2008.

The Final Report recommended that it was in Australia's national interest to seek an international agreement for holding carbon dioxide equivalent concentrations at 450 parts per million (ppm) or lower, with Australia offering in advance to play its full proportionate part in such an agreement. He further recommended that, should all negotiations collapse at the Copenhagen summit, Australia should still reduce its emissions by 5% by 2020 on 2000 levels.

The Review recommended that an Emissions Trading Scheme, with emissions permits being allocated by auction, should be the centrepiece of Australia's policies to implement emissions reductions targets. The Emissions Trading Scheme should be supported by major public funding for innovation in low emissions technologies, funded from the permit auction revenues. The Final Report proposed a principled formula for assistance to trade-exposed, emissions-intensive industries, within which assistance would be phased out automatically as other countries introduced emissions pricing.

Professor Garnaut said that the overall cost to the Australian economy of tackling climate change under both the 450ppm and 550ppm scenarios was manageable and in the order of 0.1-0.2 per cent of annual economic growth to 2020.

The Garnaut Climate Change Review estimated mitigation costs for 450ppm at almost a percentage point more than 550pmm mitigation of the present value of Gross National Product through the 21st century. The report stated that stronger mitigation is justified by insurance value and non-market value benefits in the 21st century and much larger benefits beyond, and that the costs of action are less than the costs of inaction.

All papers (including transcripts of Garnaut Climate Change Review public events and the entire Final Report) produced as part of the Garnaut Climate Change Review are available online at: www.garnautreview.org.au.

Download the Garnaut Climate Change Review in PDF format:

Terms of Reference

Introduction

Chapter 1: A decision making framework

Chapter 2: Understanding climate science

Chapter 3: Emissions in the Platinum Age

Chapter 4: Projecting global climate change

Chapter 5: Projecting Australian climate change

Chapter 6: Climate change impacts on Australia

Chapter 7: Australia's emissions in a global context

Chapter 8: Assessing the international response

Chapter 9: Towards global agreement

Chapter 10: Deepening global collaboration

Chapter 11: Costing climate change and its avoidance

Chapter 12: Targets and trajectories

Chapter 13: An Australian policy framework

Chapter 14: An Australian emissions trading scheme

Chapter 15: Adaptation and mitigation measures for Australia

Chapter 16: Sharing the burden in Australia

Chapter 17: Information barriers to known technologies

Chapter 18: The innovation challenge

Chapter 19: Network infrastructure

Chapter 20: Transforming energy

Chapter 21: Transforming transport

Chapter 22: Transforming rural land use

Chapter 23: Towards a low-emissions economy

Chapter 24: Fateful decisions

Corrigenda 14 October 2008

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Climate Change Related Lectures, Articles and Speeches:

Submission to the Joint Select Committee on Australia's Clean Energy Future Legislation, Melbourne, 27 September 2011

The Limits to Adaptation to Climate Change, Keynote address to the Four Degrees or More? 2011 Conference Australia in a Hot World, Melbourne, 13 July 2011

Statement on the Climate Change Policy Package released by the Australian Government, 10 July 2011

The Garnaut Climate Change Review Update 2011, address to the Greenhouse 2011: The Science of Climate Change Conference, Cairns, 5 April 2011

The Garnaut Climate Change Review Update 2011, address to the Environment and Economics 2011: Australia's Climate Policy Options Conference, Australian National University, Canberra, 31 March 2011

Economics, Climate Change and Biodiversity, address to the Ecological Society of Australia ESA10: 2010 Conference, Sustaining Biodiversity: The Next 50 Years, Canberra, 7 December 2010

Growth, Cycles, Climate and Structural Change: Two Hard Decades Ahead, address to the Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering's Australia 2030 Conference, Sydney, 11 November 2010

What if Mainstream Science is Right? The Rout of Knowledge and Analysis in Australian Climate Change Policy (and a Chance of Recovery?), 2010 Cunningham Lecture, Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, Canberra, 9 November 2010

Link to video recording of the 2010 Cunningham Lecture, Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, Canberra, 9 November 2010

New International Context of Climate Change Policy - Address to the Asia Climate Change Policy Forum 2010, The Australian National University, 27 October 2010

Link to video recording of Continuity and Change on Climate Policy, Closing Plenary Address at the Carbon Expo Australasia 2010 Conference, Melbourne, 13 October 2010

Climate Change, China Booms and Australia's Governance Struggle in a Changing World - The 2010 Hamer Oration, The University of Melbourne, 5 August 2010, Melbourne

Innovation and Climate Change Mitigation After a Delayed Start -Presentation at Carbon Capture and Storage Under the Spotlight, C02CRC Public Lecture, The University of Melbourne, 22 July 2010

China as a Great Power: Some Implications for Australia - Address to Australia China Business Council (Victoria Division) Melbourne, 13 May 2010 (See pages 8-10 for reference to recent discussion of China's climate change policy)

Link to video and audio of Transforming Data into Policy: What can we learn from climate change policy making in Australia so far? Forum at University of Melbourne 30 March 2010. This forum looked at how well our public policy making processes have served Australia's national interests in developing its response to climate change, including the development of support policies for trade exposed industries and for new technologies. It also considered how well we have used and communicated quantitative data to help guide and inform the policy debate. Forum moderator: Michael Gawenda. Other panelists included: The Hon Greg Combet AM, MP (Minister Assisting the Minister for Climate Change), Paul Kelly (Editor-at-large of The Australian), Rod Sims (Director, Port Jackson Partners Limited)

Climate Change and the Energy Sector - Energy Futures Seminar: The Future of Carbon Trading in Australia, Energy Research Institute, Melbourne 17 February 2010

Global Warming After The Obama Accord - Keynote Address to the Annual Conference of Supreme and Federal Court Judges - Canberra 25 January 2010

The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald Opinion piece on COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen - 22 December 2009

International Agreement on Climate Change Mitigation After The Great Crash of 2008 - Seventh Annual Whitman Lecture, Peterson Institute for International Economics - Washington DC 1 December 2009

Climate Change: The Public Interest and Private Interests in Australian Policy - 2009 Annual Hawke Lecture - Adelaide 4 November 2009

Climate Change from the Perspective of the Torres Strait 2009 Mabo Lecture - Townsville 7 October 2009

Video recording of the 2009 Mabo Lecture - Townsville 7 October 2009

The Policy Framework for Transition to a Low Carbon World Economy - Tokyo 3 October 2009

Lateline Transcript: China Discusses China's Take on Climate Change - 28 September 2009

China and the Transition to a Low-Carbon National Economy - Beijing 25 September 2009

One Year After the Garnaut Climate Change Review:

Essay - ANU 14 September 2009